Russia’s escalating, multipronged campaign risks destabilising the EU. Co-authored with Arno Van Rensbergen.
On Boxing Day, Finnish authorities detained the Eagle S, a Russian oil tanker suspected of damaging a key power cable and four telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea by dragging its anchor across the seabed. The incident was the latest in a series of covert Russian operations targeting Europe’s physical infrastructure and political stability – part of the Kremlin’s ‘hybrid war’ strategy.
Moscow denied any involvement, but Finnish officials accused Russia of sabotage. Investigators boarding the vessel reportedly found spy equipment, intensifying suspicions. The incidents have prompted NATO to enhance its military presence in the region to safeguard essential communication and energy links.
A surge in hybrid operations
Last year saw a dramatic rise in documented Russian hybrid warfare activities across Europe. The number stood at 44 incidents in 2024, up from just 13 in 2023, according to research from Leiden University. The activities included a fire that destroyed Warsaw’s largest shopping centre, the assassination of a Russian defector, and electoral interference in Romania. Russia is suspected of involvement in at least 56 acts of sabotage, vandalism, influence operations or targeted violence across Europe since 2022, the research showed.
“Not only is the number of incidents increasing, but they are also expanding geographically,” said Bart Schuurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden. Previously concentrated in Scandinavia and the Baltics, these operations have now shifted westward, with countries like France and Germany becoming new targets.
As a result, “European governments are in the process of waking up,” according to MEP Riho Terras, a former Estonian chief of defence.
From assassinations to infrastructure sabotage
In his first address to the European Parliament in Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned last Monday that Europe is “not at war, but we are not at peace either.” That’s a sentiment that has resonated in northern and eastern Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Incidents such as border provocations and cable cutting by Russia have become frequent, spanning from the Arctic Circle to the Black Sea.
“For [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, Ukraine is just one battlefield in a broader confrontation with the West,” said Mark Galeotti, a Kremlin expert. “Since last year, the gloves have come off.”
The tactics employed by Moscow range from physical sabotage to cyberattacks to election interference. In early 2024, a plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of German defence giant Rheinmetall, was foiled by German security forces. Papperger had announced plans to build a Panther tank factory in Ukraine, making him a key target.
Russia’s aim, experts say, is to sow fear, doubt and division in Europe, ultimately making coordinated action against Moscow hard to come by.
Last year, Romanian intelligence agencies concluded that Russia had orchestrated a sophisticated social media campaign, particularly on TikTok, to bolster the candidacy of far-right, pro-Russian politician Calin Georgescu in the presidential election.
“Citizens are becoming anxious and are turning to Kremlin-friendly politicians. In this way, the support of the West for Ukraine can be undermined,” said Schuurman.
Read the full piece on The Parliament here.
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